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The US freight market right now: rates, volumes and capacity

By Truck Vera team ·

Spot rates are up about a third from last year while freight volumes are lower. Here is what the data shows and what it means for dispatchers.

Updated September 28, 2026

The US truckload market in late September 2026 is tight. The reason isn't more freight; it's fewer trucks. Here is what the latest data from DAT, C.H. Robinson, Arrive Logistics and trade press shows, and what it means for dispatchers.

Rates are up about a third on last year

  • DAT's national spot averages for the week of September 13–19 were $2.96 a mile for dry van, $3.59 for reefer and $3.55 for flatbed, fuel included.
  • Without fuel, dry van linehaul averaged $2.17 a mile, 33% higher than a year earlier. Reefer linehaul was up 38% and flatbed 29%.
  • Much of September's rise came from fuel, not linehaul. Arrive Logistics notes that average rates rose "despite lower linehaul rates, largely due to rising fuel surcharges."
  • C.H. Robinson expects dry van spot costs per mile to end 2026 about 30% above 2025, and to rise another 10% in 2027.

Volumes are lower, not higher

  • Accepted truckload volumes ran 3% to 4% below 2025 levels in August, according to FreightWaves SONAR data cited by Arrive Logistics.
  • Imports have held up. Descartes counted 2.6 million TEUs in August, the third-highest monthly total on record.

Capacity is the real story

  • DAT reports truck posts 30% below a year ago for van, and 24% below for reefer and flatbed. Its load-to-truck ratios for the week were 11.2 for van, 19.1 for reefer and 40.5 for flatbed.
  • Arrive Logistics says spot equipment postings are at their lowest level in more than a decade.
  • Tender rejections, the share of contracted loads that carriers turn down, settled near 13% after Labor Day (SONAR, via Arrive).
  • Enforcement has taken drivers off the road. Transport Topics reported in May that states had revoked more than 28,000 non-domiciled CDLs, and that FMCSA expects about 194,000 current non-domiciled CDL holders to leave the freight market. Land Line also points to English-proficiency out-of-service orders, and to federal data showing more than 120,000 trucking jobs lost since October 2022.
  • New trucks aren't filling the gap quickly. ACT Research counted roughly 9,700 Class 8 orders in August (via Arrive).

What to expect this fall

Arrive Logistics expects the market to stay relatively stable in the near term, with "no major seasonal disruptions expected before Q4 peak." It warns that the lack of new capacity leaves the market "primed for another inflationary push when winter weather, holiday demand and capacity tightness take hold."

What it means for dispatchers (our advice)

  • Don't take the first offer. With this many loads for every posted truck, carriers have more room to negotiate. Know the lane's going rate before you call.
  • Look at linehaul and fuel separately. Much of this year's rise is fuel. Make sure the rate confirmation shows the fuel surcharge on its own line, so a good-looking all-in rate isn't hiding a weak linehaul.
  • Count every mile. Compare rate per mile including deadhead, not just loaded miles. Empty miles cost more when diesel is at record highs.
  • Stay close to the brokers who pay well and on time. When rejections are high, brokers value carriers who show up. That's leverage for dedicated or repeat lanes.
  • Keep paperwork complete. A rate confirmation on every load and a fast POD mean faster invoicing, and cash flow matters more when fuel is expensive.
  • Plan for the fourth quarter now: weather, holidays and tighter capacity usually arrive together.

Sources